MARS
THE IMPORTANCE OF PROPULSION
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Everyone in the aerospace industry is well-aware that humans have not left low Earth orbit since 1972, and it seems that bureaucracies will continue to oppose any mission beyond LEO due to safety issues, be they real or imaginary. One of the most important issues to remember is that every single bureaucratic safety blockade circles back to one thing: PROPULSION.
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In long-duration spaceflight, propulsion is almost everything. The more powerful a propulsion system, the quicker the astronauts can arrive at their destination, which in turn lowers both radiation dosage and muscle/bone atrophy. A more efficient form of propulsion is also advantageous. Higher efficiency means greater masses to LEO and, in turn, to their final destinations. A greater mass means the astronauts will have more hardware and supplies for their mission, which would ostensibly prevent more problems from ever happening. The safety factor for human missions can sky rocket with advanced propulsion, so therefore it is vital that we allocate resources for research into this particular facet of aerospace technology. I can say with certainty that this is what is holding us back, but that this is the long-term key to our exploration of the solar system and beyond.
As I said before: No return? No deposit.
NO RETURN, NO DEPOSIT: An Unpopular Opinion
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In the near term, we can absolutely get to Mars using current technology, using 3 heavy-lift launches. However, what we cannot do is begin a space program where we send the first humans to Mars on a one-way trip. I call this concept "No Return, No Deposit".
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To be frank, nobody is going to fund such a program over any kind of realistic timeline unless and atleast the first mission involves the astronauts returning to Earth. When I hear about a venture such as MarsOne, I believe their mission architecture is destined for failure because they are suggesting that they will recruit regular, everyday humans to voluntarily move to Mars before even proving that they can safely get humans to Mars.
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When MarsOne went public in 2012, many people (including entrepreneurs) came out and said how willing they would be to pick up and move with their families to Mars. First off, their families most definitely have a different opinion. Second of all, it is easy to make such claims without any consequences. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone realistically willing to give up their entire life on Earth to move to Mars before a settlement is built and before we can prove that we can return them safely back to Earth. What if those everyday citizens got to Mars and could not survive? Or what if they got to Mars and realized they hated it? What if an overwhelming sense of isolation set in and it lead to problematic psychological issues?
INSPIRATION MARS 2.0
Contrary to the one-way mission architecture, I believe a mission similar to Dennis Tito's venture from Inspiration Mars could work. Dennis originally suggested 2 astronauts fly in a modified Dragon capsule on a 501-day free-return trajectory around Mars, launching in 2021. Free-return simply means the crew would use Martian gravity on a hyperbolic trajectory with a periareion (closest approach to Mars) of ~100 miles to "slingshot" the spacecraft back to Earth. The modified capsule would require a more spacious cabin than that of a standard Dragon, so the mission would likely consist of an inflatable HAB module similar to that of the B330 from Bigelow Aerospace. Note that the mission would not come without risk (e.g: there are no direct-return abort options), but it is certainly feasible, and I believe it has a good chance of actually being flown as an "Apollo 8"-like precursor to a piloted landing.
The final idea from the Inspiration Mars camp was to send this crew on an interplanetary mission to Mars via a gravity assist from Venus. Because of the added gravity-assist, the mission would take a planned 582 days, returning to Earth more than 19 months later. This added time would result in larger radiation doses and launch requirements, translating into higher mission costs. However, on the final leg of the mission, I have calculated a shorter trajectory that would have the crew returning to Earth on May 10, a full 48 days sooner than originally planned. You can download the file "Inspiration Mars 2.0" file that outlines this trajectory in full.
